An option, not a projection.
About $1.15M is spent over 18 months to learn whether conversion looks like the upside path. If it does, a seed round funds the path to a roughly $12M exit. If it doesn't, the plan stops and limits the founder's loss. All figures are projections from the v2 model; weights on outcomes are judgment, not data.
Bear, base, bull
Revenue and adjusted EBITDA
projection · $000Move the weights, see the expected return
The model's default weights are 30% stopped by day 90–month 9, 45% wound down at month 18, 25% upside. These are judgment. The day-90 interview test is the cheapest way to update them.
The remainder winds down at month 18.
| Path | Weight |
|---|
Paths: stopped early = $450k in (month 1 and 5 tranches), about $25k recovered at month 9. Wound down = $600k in, about $75k recovered at month 18. Upside = $600k in, $9.29M fully diluted proceeds at month 60.
What the first dollars buy
Launch budget: $100k
Deferred until the first paid site: a $25k demo tower. Cut: a $20k scrap-yard app.
Capital plan, gated
| Source | Amount | When | Gate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Founder tranche 1 | $250k | Month 1 | Day-30 gate passed before more than ~$40k is spent |
| Founder tranche 2 | $200k | Month 5 | Day-90 gate |
| Founder tranche 3 | $150k | Month 9 | Month-9 gate |
| SAFE | $400k | ~Month 11 | $3M post-money cap, MFN; no ROFR or exclusivity |
| Receivables line | ≤ $200k | First EPC contract | 80% of eligible AR; not equity |
| Seed | $1.25M | Month 18 | Upside-path test; ~$8M post |
The gates (stop or pivot if any is true)
OEM tower quote ≤ $1,500/mo with SLA; central-station quote incl. tier-1 intake; insurance indication ≤ $100k; counsel's written licensing path; patrol response map for 3 counties.
≥ 2 paid engagements; ≥ 3 of 25 interviews report a loss over $250k in 24 months; ≥ 2 buyers agree to a paid, creditable assessment.
≥ 5 paid engagements; a signed program; ≥ 2 EPC prequal approvals; realized construction GM ≥ 24%.
≥ 6 active program sites; ≥ 3 EPC logos; ≥ 1 owner-specified program; ≥ $90k monthly revenue; walk-down conversion ≥ 30%.
C-corp from day one
A Delaware C-corp fits SAFEs and can qualify for the expanded §1202 (QSBS) exclusion on stock issued after July 4, 2025: 50% after 3 years, 75% after 4, 100% after 5, with a $15M per-issuer cap and a $75M gross-asset limit. On the upside path's ~$8.7M founder gain, that is roughly $2.1M of federal tax avoided at 23.8%. Sources: EY, Crowell. Not tax advice; the qualified-trade question (consulting is excluded) needs counsel.
What most likely kills it
- Conversion lands at planning-case rates. The central risk; the gates exist for it.
- EPCs keep buying the cheapest trailer, guard or free survey.
- Prequalification pushes the first EPC logo past 6 months.
- Licensing (NRS 648, CA BSIS, AZ) blocks or delays assessments.
- Insurance over $100k, or EPC demands for $5M+ limits.
Talk about the SAFE or the plan
Questions, diligence requests or a challenge to an assumption are all welcome. Nothing on this page is an offer to sell securities.