A monthly model that was allowed to say no.
Sixty months, four scenarios, every site traced back to an engagement and a conversion rate. After three red-team reviews, the planning case does not reach a sellable EBITDA in five years, so the business is framed as a gated option. Every figure on this page is a projection.
Pick a scenario
Revenue by stream
projection · $000Adjusted EBITDA
projection · $000Cumulative cash, all four scenarios, before the funding plan
projection · monthlyUnlevered: founder tranches, SAFE and seed excluded so the curves show the business's own burn. The selected scenario is emphasized. Gates at day 90, month 9 and month 18 are marked.
Sites under program (end of year)
W-2 hires, triggered by volume
Hires fire when a trigger is met (first active site, 4th active site, 12 trailing engagements, and so on), not on a calendar.
Table view: selected scenario, annual ($)
No top-down share grab. Every site traces to a funnel step.
The v1 plan assumed site counts. v2 drives them from engagements times conversion, plus repeat sites inside EPCs we've already landed.
Base-case values shown. The upside path raises walk-down conversion to 35%, red-team-to-operating to 30%, repeats to 1.6 a year, sites per portfolio conversion to 2.5, adds a signed O&M channel from Year 3, about 30% more engagement volume and 5% higher prices.
One construction zone, one month
The v1 plan claimed 42% gross margin on an $8k bundle; a line-by-line rebuild found about 14%. v2 restructured to per-zone pricing with visible pass-through.
Price $4,358 = hardware and monitoring at cost + 12% ($3,158) + management fee ($1,200). COGS $3,213 includes patrol allowance, incident support, a 10% channel share on 30% of sites and 2% SLA credits. Gross margin 26.3% (projection).
Sensitivity: OEM tower wholesale price
Sensitivity: engagement volume (planning case)
Volume alone does not reach the upside path, because hires trigger as volume rises. Conversion rates and sites per conversion are what move the business.
Implied blended CAC per new program site
Seller at $220k loaded, events, travel, prequalification and 9% commissions on first-year value excluding pass-through.
v1 headline, retired
| v1 (retired) | v2 planning | v2 upside | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Y5 revenue | $6.15M | $4.94M | $9.52M |
| Y5 gross margin | 50% | 39% | 44% |
| Y5 adjusted EBITDA | $1.54M (owner) | –$0.01M | $1.72M |
| Break-even month | 19 | 59 | 34 |
| Peak unlevered cash need | $0.59M | $2.72M | $1.84M |
| Exit EV | $13.9M (9×) | none in Y5 | $12.0M (7×) |
| Founder MOIC / IRR | 60× / 130% | stopped at M18 | 15.5× / 78% |
Why v1 was retired: construction COGS contradicted its own note; no GM salary, commissions, bad debt or SLA credits; a platform multiple applied to a sub-$2M-EBITDA services shop; site volume not reconciled to the assessment funnel; Year-1 sales cost and insurance too low; no team equity. Full response in Section 17 of the plan.
Bear 4×, planning 6×, upside 7×; 9× only if operating recurring revenue exceeds 40%. Sub-$2M EBITDA integrators trade at roughly 3.5–5.5× per CT Acquisitions (a broker page; directional only).
30× operating RMR (subscriptions + drone + marking refresh, month-60 run rate). Monitoring books trade at 40–60× RMR per the same source; 30× is the conservative check.
GM salary, founder market comp, 9% commissions, 1% bad debt, 2% SLA credits, $80–145k insurance, licensing via a qualified manager. No add-backs needed.
Selected scenario drivers
Switch scenarios above to see these change. Judgment calls are labeled as such in the plan.